There are four categories of stocks when it comes to the pandemic: Stocks that got crushed but will likely bounce back (airlines, travel);Stocks that got crushed but won't have the opportunity to bounce back (retailers that went bankrupt);Stocks that did well because of the pandemic and will continue to do well (anything remote work or… Continue reading General Mills: post-pandemic slump
Trading is a game of survival against the twin threats of long-term inflation and capital preservation. Achieving a balance between the two ultimately determines success. To beat inflation, you have to take risk. But to protect your capital, you have to understand the role of risk management in trading. GameStop: the perfect short (2015 to… Continue reading Risk Management in Trading: GameStop Edition
After being a private company since its founding in 2013, DoorDash filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC on November 13. Once the traditional roadshow wraps up, shares are expected to start trading in mid-December under the DASH ticker. DoorDash goes into the pile of things I don't understand, but it's hunting season in Ohio… Continue reading DoorDash IPO
I always like looking at research and experiments, both academic and decidedly un-academic, for ideas. One that I recently stumbled upon when I was looking into the updated Piotroski F-Score research piece from AlphaArchitect was an individual's attempt to generate a basket of stocks to short using a combination of the Piotroski F-Score, the Ohlson… Continue reading Shorting the Pandemic
Ready for a low-risk and low-return short that you probably won't have to watch too closely, has low carrying costs, and has a built-in ceiling? As long as this time isn't different I think now is a good time take a look at shorting intermediate treasury notes. Unless you've been at a silent retreat with… Continue reading Short Treasuries
I'm going to do it: The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines.- Warren Buffett ... if a far-sighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.- Warren Buffett There,… Continue reading Will United Airlines Go Bankrupt?
A little less than a year ago I put up Tesla: hope is not a strategy and listed the five things that were putting the future of Tesla in doubt: Tesla closed most of its retail showrooms and laid off staff in order to save 6% of cost per Model 3 car sold. The Model… Continue reading Tesla: if you can’t be right, be less wrong
Quick: name a publicly traded stock that has gone up 8,500+ percent over the past 5 years. Do you immediately start thinking of Silicon Valley unicorns and IPOs that have occurred sometime since 2014? I know that's the first thing I did. It turns out that China Ding Yi Feng Holdings Ltd., which is an investment… Continue reading China Ding Yi Feng Holdings Ltd.
New Age Beverages Corp (NBEV) is a distributor of ready-to-drink teas, coffees, coconut waters, and energy drinks. Brand names under their current umbrella include: XingTea XingEnergy Coco-Libre Aspen Pure I'll forgive you if you haven't heard of any of them. NBEV assembled this motley collection by acquiring other struggling beverage companies. Why were they struggling?… Continue reading New Age Beverages Corp (NBEV)
I am a long-time fan of Tesla. I am a long-time fan of Elon Musk's vision and what he has already accomplished. I love their cars (not their SUV), I love their solar roofs, and I love their home energy storage solution. I am always rooting for Musk to succeed in his vision of a… Continue reading Tesla: hope is not a strategy