I'm sure I'm not the only one that has watched CVS's stock price get chopped in half after peaking in 2014 at $112 a share. On an annualized basis that loss is 15.3 percent. All while the US market kept powering higher. Unfortunately for CVS, it has been at the nexus of two trends that… Continue reading CVS: Turnaround or Value Trap?
Category: Investing
Slow Reactions: 10Q Risk Factor Changes
Why you shouldn't skim over the risk factors section in a 10K, what the changes can portend, and an example of how it can play out.
It’s not Active vs Passive
You're not as smart as you think you are. Why active investing has a role but it's a lot smaller than you think.
ZIV ETF: how to short volatility
The easiest and safest way to short volatility is to pair it with an asset that benefits from a flight to safety and then trade around the ZIV ETF core position.
GFC: 10 Years Later & Still an Opportunity
The Great Financial Crisis turned out to be the greatest buying opportunity in a generation. While most of the opportunities are long gone, due to regulations that boosted Tier 1 capital ratios there are still two attractive investment opportunities out there.
Pyxus International’s Second Lien Debt
Note: this was written prior to Pyxus's bankruptcy in 2020. For an updated analysis of what went wrong, check out Bankrupt: Pyxus International Inc. Stock. Pyxus International, fka Alliance One International, coordinates the purchase, processing, and storage of leaf tobacco from farmers all over the world and then bundles it all together and sells it… Continue reading Pyxus International’s Second Lien Debt
Investing with Global Warming
I usually keep a file with random ideas I come across as I’m reading. I use these ideas to try to create two mental frameworks: How the world works; and How the world could work. Simply understanding how the world works is hard enough. Trying to understand how the world could work, and successfully capitalizing… Continue reading Investing with Global Warming
How to Avoid Tariffs
Let me tell you a story about how one company reacted to some accidental tariffs. But first, some background. Tariffs: A Primer A tariff is a tax that is placed on goods that are imported into a country. There are 3 generally accepted reasons to use tariffs. Your country has a nascent industry that you're… Continue reading How to Avoid Tariffs
Enough to Walk Away
Does it ever seem like saving enough money to exit the paid workforce is too daunting? How much does it really take to walk away from it all? How big a pile of loot do you need to walk away? Enough to Walk Away: in 2 parts Part One: How much money do you spend?… Continue reading Enough to Walk Away
Core Trading
Never let a trade turn into an investment. Trading has many truisms that are based on behavioral biases and shortcomings. One of the common ones for both traders and investors is the tendency to enter a position then hold onto it as it drops in value instead of sticking with a predefined stop loss or… Continue reading Core Trading
