Ah, late Summer, when you start feeling sad that the warm and sunny carefree days are close to an end, the evenings spent on the back patio will soon require a fire and a sweater, and you turn your attention to Fall. But before you can truly start growing that seasonal beard in earnest, there's… Continue reading New Normal: 2% AVERAGE Inflation
In 2018 I thought the second lien notes of Pyxus International Inc represented a good reward to risk ratio. 2 years later and it turns out I was completely wrong as Pyxus International Inc stock went to 11 cents per share and the second lien notes were offered 2 cents on the dollar in a prepackaged Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
I love simple heuristics probably more than the next guy, especially in finance. One of my most eye opening experiences during my early years as a credit analyst was when I was sitting in a room with a deal team and they were talking about pricing a new Term Loan B offering. The VP was… Continue reading Beware Simple Heuristics
The title of this post was going to be "Financial Media Pet Peeve #342" but I can't resist a Shakespeare reference, especially since we're only a bit past Midsummer's Eve. Anyway... If you consume any financial media whatsoever I'm sure you've seen article after article saying that the stock market is in a bubble, totally… Continue reading Bubble Bubble Toil & Trouble
"I can only say that, like any other millennial who lacks the weighted blanket of family money, I understand the world I came of age in as a sort of Luigi's Mansion of institutional collapse and economic precariousness." - Jia Tolentino, Will Write for Pasta Unprecedented Volatility There isn't much else to say besides these months… Continue reading Epic Volatility
More digital ink has been spilled by traders, investors, bloggers, and charlatans, none of which are mutually exclusive, on what will cause the next recession. Some of these guys have been around long enough to have called 17 of the last 2 recessions. The reason so much time and effort is devoted to calling recessions… Continue reading What will cause the next recession
Pop quiz: what is the result when you combine two iconic American consumer product companies with 150 years of history, let hot-shot private equity guys do their soft-shoe jazz hands bit with the imprimatur of no less than Warren Buffett, load it with debt, "create synergies and eliminate waste," and then briefly make it the… Continue reading Kraft Heinz Company: The Rise & Fall (& Rise Again?)
It turns out tariffs weren't the cure-all for the steel industry. In fact, the US steel industry outlook continues to depend on the end markets that it supplies. Those end markets, most of which are cyclical themselves, are subject to the same economic expansion and contraction constraints as the steel industry. What Happened to the… Continue reading US Steel Industry Outlook: Hard Times Ahead
There's a not very funny joke among statisticians that with enough anecdotes you can create a data set. Alternatively, if you're a finance researcher you can take an anecdote, put together a data set, and see if the anecdote's conclusion matches. Dr. Herbert Wartheim Earlier this year there was a profile piece in Forbes called… Continue reading Patent Alpha: Anecdote & Data
Take a look at the rise and fall of Dean Foods and how an investor or trader can use various tools to stay on the right side of the trends.