More digital ink has been spilled by traders, investors, bloggers, and charlatans, none of which are mutually exclusive, on what will cause the next recession. Some of these guys have been around long enough to have called 17 of the last 2 recessions. The reason so much time and effort is devoted to calling recessions… Continue reading What will cause the next recession
Pop quiz: what is the result when you combine two iconic American consumer product companies with 150 years of history, let hot-shot private equity guys do their soft-shoe jazz hands bit with the imprimatur of no less than Warren Buffett, load it with debt, "create synergies and eliminate waste," and then briefly make it the… Continue reading Kraft Heinz Company: The Rise & Fall (& Rise Again?)
It turns out tariffs weren't the cure-all for the steel industry. In fact, the US steel industry outlook continues to depend on the end markets that it supplies. Those end markets, most of which are cyclical themselves, are subject to the same economic expansion and contraction constraints as the steel industry. What Happened to the… Continue reading US Steel Industry Outlook: Hard Times Ahead
There's a not very funny joke among statisticians that with enough anecdotes you can create a data set. Alternatively, if you're a finance researcher you can take an anecdote, put together a data set, and see if the anecdote's conclusion matches. Dr. Herbert Wartheim Earlier this year there was a profile piece in Forbes called… Continue reading Patent Alpha: Anecdote & Data
Take a look at the rise and fall of Dean Foods and how an investor or trader can use various tools to stay on the right side of the trends.
I'm sure I'm not the only one that has watched CVS's stock price get chopped in half after peaking in 2014 at $112 a share. On an annualized basis that loss is 15.3 percent. All while the US market kept powering higher. Unfortunately for CVS, it has been at the nexus of two trends that… Continue reading CVS: Turnaround or Value Trap?
Why you shouldn't skim over the risk factors section in a 10K, what the changes can portend, and an example of how it can play out.