It's not terribly often you get the combination of a giant untapped market, a better product, and rapid adoption. However, StoneCo's ($STNE) growth in Brazil's electronic payments market appears to fit the bill. While StoneCo is not as well-known as Square or PayPal here in the US, the company was started in 2012 when it… Continue reading StoneCo: Buy & Forget
Back in August of 2020, so roughly 3 years ago by my calculation, Citi, as Administrative Agent for a loan that was in the midst of restructuring for Revlon, accidentally wired a bunch of the participants $900M. Citi said it meant to pay several months of accrued interest on the loan that totaled ~$9M, but… Continue reading Citi’s $900M Whoopsie
The most consistent options income available to the average investor is selling puts on stocks you want to own. There are fancier strategies out there for generating options income, but they all rely on more precise timing for both price direction and volatility, and more complex trade management. If you want to maximize your chance… Continue reading Consistent Options Income
Some variation of the following pops up periodically: How can I trade for a living? How much money do I need to start trading for a living? What's the easiest strategy to use to trade for a living? How long does it take to learn to trade for a living? A lot of the answers… Continue reading How to Trade for a Living
Ah, late Summer, when you start feeling sad that the warm and sunny carefree days are close to an end, the evenings spent on the back patio will soon require a fire and a sweater, and you turn your attention to Fall. But before you can truly start growing that seasonal beard in earnest, there's… Continue reading New Normal: 2% AVERAGE Inflation
Let me tell you youngsters about the time back in my day, oh so far back in 2011, which was the last time that Gold had a massive rally. This was a time before Robinhood and Dave Portnoy. We didn't have any fancy apps to trade from and commissions sure as hell weren't free. Every… Continue reading Gold: Lighten Up Already
Ready for a low-risk and low-return short that you probably won't have to watch too closely, has low carrying costs, and has a built-in ceiling? As long as this time isn't different I think now is a good time take a look at shorting intermediate treasury notes. Unless you've been at a silent retreat with… Continue reading Short Treasuries
I'm going to do it: The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines.- Warren Buffett ... if a far-sighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.- Warren Buffett There,… Continue reading Will United Airlines Go Bankrupt?
In 2018 I thought the second lien notes of Pyxus International Inc represented a good reward to risk ratio. 2 years later and it turns out I was completely wrong as Pyxus International Inc stock went to 11 cents per share and the second lien notes were offered 2 cents on the dollar in a prepackaged Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
I love simple heuristics probably more than the next guy, especially in finance. One of my most eye opening experiences during my early years as a credit analyst was when I was sitting in a room with a deal team and they were talking about pricing a new Term Loan B offering. The VP was… Continue reading Beware Simple Heuristics