The stress of the COVID Crash ended for me on June 2, 2020 (just to be clear: the rest of 2020 continues to be a shitshow). It was a Tuesday and it was the day that I took profits on the additional tranches I bought when the markets went haywire earlier in the year. Going… Continue reading Pandemic Postmortem
Ah, late Summer, when you start feeling sad that the warm and sunny carefree days are close to an end, the evenings spent on the back patio will soon require a fire and a sweater, and you turn your attention to Fall. But before you can truly start growing that seasonal beard in earnest, there's… Continue reading New Normal: 2% AVERAGE Inflation
Let me tell you youngsters about the time back in my day, oh so far back in 2011, which was the last time that Gold had a massive rally. This was a time before Robinhood and Dave Portnoy. We didn't have any fancy apps to trade from and commissions sure as hell weren't free. Every… Continue reading Gold: Lighten Up Already
Ready for a low-risk and low-return short that you probably won't have to watch too closely, has low carrying costs, and has a built-in ceiling? As long as this time isn't different I think now is a good time take a look at shorting intermediate treasury notes. Unless you've been at a silent retreat with… Continue reading Short Treasuries
I'm going to do it: The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines.- Warren Buffett ... if a far-sighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.- Warren Buffett There,… Continue reading Will United Airlines Go Bankrupt?
In 2018 I thought the second lien notes of Pyxus International Inc represented a good reward to risk ratio. 2 years later and it turns out I was completely wrong as Pyxus International Inc stock went to 11 cents per share and the second lien notes were offered 2 cents on the dollar in a prepackaged Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
I love simple heuristics probably more than the next guy, especially in finance. One of my most eye opening experiences during my early years as a credit analyst was when I was sitting in a room with a deal team and they were talking about pricing a new Term Loan B offering. The VP was… Continue reading Beware Simple Heuristics
The title of this post was going to be "Financial Media Pet Peeve #342" but I can't resist a Shakespeare reference, especially since we're only a bit past Midsummer's Eve. Anyway... If you consume any financial media whatsoever I'm sure you've seen article after article saying that the stock market is in a bubble, totally… Continue reading Bubble Bubble Toil & Trouble
There have been more and more articles popping up in the media talking about all the degenerate gamblers opening stock trading accounts and how it won't end well for them. Given the estimated $150B that's wagered in the United States every year it's possible there is enough new money coming into the market to move… Continue reading Welcome All Sports Bettors
Of all the things that happened in April, it had to be the crash in oil futures that best represents what keeps a trader up at night. On April 20th, crude oil futures for May delivery settled at NEGATIVE $37.63 per barrel. That's right, if you were on the hook to have a barrel of crude… Continue reading Trader Nightmares