It’s that time of year again: time for me to lay out my predictions for 2021. And after I absolutely nailed 2020* – predicting first the rapid sell-off caused by a global pandemic and then the massive rebound led by tech and everything work-from-home – you’ll really want to read to see what I predict for 2021*.
But first, let’s recap how obvious the investing environment was for 2020*. I mean, it was so obvious even John Hussman got the first quarter right, and he’s been calling for a market crash at least once or twice a year since 2010.
To get 2020 right, all you had to do was look at the 100-year global pandemic cycle*. The last major one was in 1918 and with it now being two years past the century mark it made it blindingly obvious that the next one was likely. I know I had put up a post about this a year ago*, but I must have deleted it. Regardless, statistically a pandemic is very similar* to living each additional year past 105 – it’s a 50-50 shot of happening.
Enough about 2020 though – let’s get to my 2021 predictions:
- Stocks will definitely go up and down.
- By December 2021 there will be a stock or asset that has gone up so much that I’ll really wish I had bought some earlier in the year. Hopefully it won’t be Bitcoin yet again because I’m still not going to buy any.
- A number of public companies will go bankrupt and it will be blindingly obvious in hindsight that it was going to happen.
- The federal government’s deficit and debt levels will matter to the GOP again.
In all seriousness, in the off-chance you hadn’t already figured out that the pandemic was not part of my 2020 predictions, 2021 will most likely be a better year for the world. Whether that translates into buoyant asset prices or if people will finally stop and wonder why they’re paying 245x revenue for Snowflake, $1.3 million for Wayne Gretzky’s rookie card, or $23,000 for Bitcoin, we won’t know for sure until the ball drops, hopefully with a live crowd again, on December 31, 2021.
Until then there will be no shortage of people trying to make these predictions. I, however, will not be one of them.
*Not a true statement.