2021 Prediction Season

It’s that time of year again: time for me to lay out my predictions for 2021. And after I absolutely nailed 2020* – predicting first the rapid sell-off caused by a global pandemic and then the massive rebound led by tech and everything work-from-home – you’ll really want to read to see what I predict for 2021*.

But first, let’s recap how obvious the investing environment was for 2020*. I mean, it was so obvious even John Hussman got the first quarter right, and he’s been calling for a market crash at least once or twice a year since 2010.

To get 2020 right, all you had to do was look at the 100-year global pandemic cycle*. The last major one was in 1918 and with it now being two years past the century mark it made it blindingly obvious that the next one was likely. I know I had put up a post about this a year ago*, but I must have deleted it. Regardless, statistically a pandemic is very similar* to living each additional year past 105 – it’s a 50-50 shot of happening.

Enough about 2020 though – let’s get to my 2021 predictions:

  1. Stocks will definitely go up and down.
  2. By December 2021 there will be a stock or asset that has gone up so much that I’ll really wish I had bought some earlier in the year. Hopefully it won’t be Bitcoin yet again because I’m still not going to buy any.
  3. A number of public companies will go bankrupt and it will be blindingly obvious in hindsight that it was going to happen.
  4. The federal government’s deficit and debt levels will matter to the GOP again.

In all seriousness, in the off-chance you hadn’t already figured out that the pandemic was not part of my 2020 predictions, 2021 will most likely be a better year for the world. Whether that translates into buoyant asset prices or if people will finally stop and wonder why they’re paying 245x revenue for Snowflake, $1.3 million for Wayne Gretzky’s rookie card, or $23,000 for Bitcoin, we won’t know for sure until the ball drops, hopefully with a live crowd again, on December 31, 2021.

Until then there will be no shortage of people trying to make these predictions. I, however, will not be one of them.

*Not a true statement.

1 thought on “2021 Prediction Season”

  1. Bankrupts, not zombies ? I’d heard tell of the increasing prevalence of ‘zombie corporations’ in the ‘Free World’ [let alone China]. Just today, I’ve heard someone speak of the “Roaring Twenties”, post-pandemic.. century cycle style. OTOH.
    Better next year to all. [Bless John Hussman.]

    Like

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