It may be time to dial down the risk in your portfolio. How do I know? One of the best recession forecasting economic indicators just signaled a change.
Stock Market Predictions
'Tis the season for... stock market predictions! Back when I was a wee credit analyst, my boss would ask me if I got updated financial projections from the management teams of the companies in my portfolio and what I thought of them. When I was just starting out, I would struggle to answer that question… Continue reading Stock Market Predictions
Kraft Heinz Company: The Rise & Fall (& Rise Again?)
Pop quiz: what is the result when you combine two iconic American consumer product companies with 150 years of history, let hot-shot private equity guys do their soft-shoe jazz hands bit with the imprimatur of no less than Warren Buffett, load it with debt, "create synergies and eliminate waste," and then briefly make it the… Continue reading Kraft Heinz Company: The Rise & Fall (& Rise Again?)
US Steel Industry Outlook: Hard Times Ahead
It turns out tariffs weren't the cure-all for the steel industry. In fact, the US steel industry outlook continues to depend on the end markets that it supplies. Those end markets, most of which are cyclical themselves, are subject to the same economic expansion and contraction constraints as the steel industry. What Happened to the… Continue reading US Steel Industry Outlook: Hard Times Ahead
Will Legacy Liabilities Sink General Electric (GE)?
August 15, 2019 was a rough day for General Electric's (GE) stock. Harry Markopolos, the guy who unraveled the Enron accounting fraud, released a 169-page report claiming that GE was a bigger fraud than Enron. The gist of the report was that GE was hiding a bunch of long-term care insurance liabilities and that if… Continue reading Will Legacy Liabilities Sink General Electric (GE)?
Now is the Time for Pension Liability Risk Transfer!
I know, I know: I apologize. That must be the most click-baity headline you've seen today. But stay with me because, with a little financial engineering, every blue-chip company out there that still has underfunded pension liabilities now has the opportunity of a generation. With a phone call to their favorite investment banker they can… Continue reading Now is the Time for Pension Liability Risk Transfer!
Patent Alpha: Anecdote & Data
There's a not very funny joke among statisticians that with enough anecdotes you can create a data set. Alternatively, if you're a finance researcher you can take an anecdote, put together a data set, and see if the anecdote's conclusion matches. Dr. Herbert Wartheim Earlier this year there was a profile piece in Forbes called… Continue reading Patent Alpha: Anecdote & Data
Submitting Financial Statements to a Bank: an Explainer
Now is as good as time as any to explain the difference between unaudited and audited personal financial statements that get submitted to a bank, how a banker looks at personal financial statements, and what crosses the line between normal and criminal. Personal Financial Statements A personal financial statement that an individual submits to a… Continue reading Submitting Financial Statements to a Bank: an Explainer
Dean Foods: a Retrospective
Take a look at the rise and fall of Dean Foods and how an investor or trader can use various tools to stay on the right side of the trends.
CVS: Turnaround or Value Trap?
I'm sure I'm not the only one that has watched CVS's stock price get chopped in half after peaking in 2014 at $112 a share. On an annualized basis that loss is 15.3 percent. All while the US market kept powering higher. Unfortunately for CVS, it has been at the nexus of two trends that… Continue reading CVS: Turnaround or Value Trap?
