In 2018 I thought the second lien notes of Pyxus International Inc represented a good reward to risk ratio. 2 years later and it turns out I was completely wrong as Pyxus International Inc stock went to 11 cents per share and the second lien notes were offered 2 cents on the dollar in a prepackaged Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
I love simple heuristics probably more than the next guy, especially in finance. One of my most eye opening experiences during my early years as a credit analyst was when I was sitting in a room with a deal team and they were talking about pricing a new Term Loan B offering. The VP was… Continue reading Beware Simple Heuristics
The title of this post was going to be "Financial Media Pet Peeve #342" but I can't resist a Shakespeare reference, especially since we're only a bit past Midsummer's Eve. Anyway... If you consume any financial media whatsoever I'm sure you've seen article after article saying that the stock market is in a bubble, totally… Continue reading Bubble Bubble Toil & Trouble
There have been more and more articles popping up in the media talking about all the degenerate gamblers opening stock trading accounts and how it won't end well for them. Given the estimated $150B that's wagered in the United States every year it's possible there is enough new money coming into the market to move… Continue reading Welcome All Sports Bettors
Of all the things that happened in April, it had to be the crash in oil futures that best represents what keeps a trader up at night. On April 20th, crude oil futures for May delivery settled at NEGATIVE $37.63 per barrel. That's right, if you were on the hook to have a barrel of crude… Continue reading Trader Nightmares
"I can only say that, like any other millennial who lacks the weighted blanket of family money, I understand the world I came of age in as a sort of Luigi's Mansion of institutional collapse and economic precariousness." - Jia Tolentino, Will Write for Pasta Unprecedented Volatility There isn't much else to say besides these months… Continue reading Epic Volatility
Have you ever wondered how so many people are able to pitch trade ideas on the internet? Want to know their template and their secret to success?
One of the great things about the internet and social media is all the investing and trading greats sharing their views and opinions. And then there are random guys like me. As I was checking in on Tesla's results last month and reviewing the post I wrote a year ago regarding Tesla's stumbles, realizing that… Continue reading Perfect Trades vs Perfect Investments
A little less than a year ago I put up Tesla: hope is not a strategy and listed the five things that were putting the future of Tesla in doubt: Tesla closed most of its retail showrooms and laid off staff in order to save 6% of cost per Model 3 car sold. The Model… Continue reading Tesla: if you can’t be right, be less wrong
More digital ink has been spilled by traders, investors, bloggers, and charlatans, none of which are mutually exclusive, on what will cause the next recession. Some of these guys have been around long enough to have called 17 of the last 2 recessions. The reason so much time and effort is devoted to calling recessions… Continue reading What will cause the next recession