There are four categories of stocks when it comes to the pandemic: Stocks that got crushed but will likely bounce back (airlines, travel);Stocks that got crushed but won't have the opportunity to bounce back (retailers that went bankrupt);Stocks that did well because of the pandemic and will continue to do well (anything remote work or… Continue reading General Mills: post-pandemic slump
$XOP: Contrarian Outlook
The past 10 years have not been kind to the majority of companies that make up the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF ($XOP). Neither has the past 5, 3, or 1 year periods. And these companies include such burnished yet now bygone stalwarts such as Exxon, Marathon, Valero, and Phillips 66. What… Continue reading $XOP: Contrarian Outlook
Risk Management in Trading: GameStop Edition
Trading is a game of survival against the twin threats of long-term inflation and capital preservation. Achieving a balance between the two ultimately determines success. To beat inflation, you have to take risk. But to protect your capital, you have to understand the role of risk management in trading. GameStop: the perfect short (2015 to… Continue reading Risk Management in Trading: GameStop Edition
2021 Prediction Season
It's that time of year again: time for me to lay out my predictions for 2021. And after I absolutely nailed 2020* - predicting first the rapid sell-off caused by a global pandemic and then the massive rebound led by tech and everything work-from-home - you'll really want to read to see what I predict… Continue reading 2021 Prediction Season
Coolest Things from 2020
2020 was an historic year. Read into that statement what you will because I'm not going to rehash it here. However, since it seems like I write a lot about questionable business valuations, financial shenanigans, and unfounded exuberance in the marketplace, I don't want anyone to get the idea that I'm a cynic (I'm not… Continue reading Coolest Things from 2020
DoorDash IPO
After being a private company since its founding in 2013, DoorDash filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC on November 13. Once the traditional roadshow wraps up, shares are expected to start trading in mid-December under the DASH ticker. DoorDash goes into the pile of things I don't understand, but it's hunting season in Ohio… Continue reading DoorDash IPO
Shorting the Pandemic
I always like looking at research and experiments, both academic and decidedly un-academic, for ideas. One that I recently stumbled upon when I was looking into the updated Piotroski F-Score research piece from AlphaArchitect was an individual's attempt to generate a basket of stocks to short using a combination of the Piotroski F-Score, the Ohlson… Continue reading Shorting the Pandemic
StoneCo: Buy & Forget
It's not terribly often you get the combination of a giant untapped market, a better product, and rapid adoption. However, StoneCo's ($STNE) growth in Brazil's electronic payments market appears to fit the bill. While StoneCo is not as well-known as Square or PayPal here in the US, the company was started in 2012 when it… Continue reading StoneCo: Buy & Forget
Citi’s $900M Whoopsie
[February 2021 update: Citi lost their case, but it's on appeal and not looking good for them. Matt Levine has his normally hilarious take on the ruling. I also learned a new legal doctrine as part of this whole brouhaha. Luckily I learned it from the bleachers.] Back in August of 2020, so roughly 3… Continue reading Citi’s $900M Whoopsie
Consistent Options Income
The most consistent options income available to the average investor is selling puts on stocks you want to own. There are fancier strategies out there for generating options income, but they all rely on more precise timing for both price direction and volatility, and more complex trade management. If you want to maximize your chance… Continue reading Consistent Options Income
