I spend a lot of time thinking about climate change and its impact on investments. Lots of people are sounding the alarm on migration. More recently, you're having a lot of people think about the implications of shrinking populations. All three of these issues are tied together and have significant implications for the future of… Continue reading Portfolios for a Shrinking World
Risk Management in Trading: GameStop Edition
Trading is a game of survival against the twin threats of long-term inflation and capital preservation. Achieving a balance between the two ultimately determines success. To beat inflation, you have to take risk. But to protect your capital, you have to understand the role of risk management in trading. GameStop: the perfect short (2015 to… Continue reading Risk Management in Trading: GameStop Edition
2021 Prediction Season
It's that time of year again: time for me to lay out my predictions for 2021. And after I absolutely nailed 2020* - predicting first the rapid sell-off caused by a global pandemic and then the massive rebound led by tech and everything work-from-home - you'll really want to read to see what I predict… Continue reading 2021 Prediction Season
Coolest Things from 2020
2020 was an historic year. Read into that statement what you will because I'm not going to rehash it here. However, since it seems like I write a lot about questionable business valuations, financial shenanigans, and unfounded exuberance in the marketplace, I don't want anyone to get the idea that I'm a cynic (I'm not… Continue reading Coolest Things from 2020
DoorDash IPO
After being a private company since its founding in 2013, DoorDash filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC on November 13. Once the traditional roadshow wraps up, shares are expected to start trading in mid-December under the DASH ticker. DoorDash goes into the pile of things I don't understand, but it's hunting season in Ohio… Continue reading DoorDash IPO
Shorting the Pandemic
I always like looking at research and experiments, both academic and decidedly un-academic, for ideas. One that I recently stumbled upon when I was looking into the updated Piotroski F-Score research piece from AlphaArchitect was an individual's attempt to generate a basket of stocks to short using a combination of the Piotroski F-Score, the Ohlson… Continue reading Shorting the Pandemic
Citi’s $900M Whoopsie
[February 2021 update: Citi lost their case, but it's on appeal and not looking good for them. Matt Levine has his normally hilarious take on the ruling. I also learned a new legal doctrine as part of this whole brouhaha. Luckily I learned it from the bleachers.] Back in August of 2020, so roughly 3… Continue reading Citi’s $900M Whoopsie
Consistent Options Income
The most consistent options income available to the average investor is selling puts on stocks you want to own. There are fancier strategies out there for generating options income, but they all rely on more precise timing for both price direction and volatility, and more complex trade management. If you want to maximize your chance… Continue reading Consistent Options Income
How to Trade for a Living
Some variation of the following pops up periodically: How can I trade for a living? How much money do I need to start trading for a living? What's the easiest strategy to use to trade for a living? How long does it take to learn to trade for a living? A lot of the answers… Continue reading How to Trade for a Living
New Normal: 2% AVERAGE Inflation
Ah, late Summer, when you start feeling sad that the warm and sunny carefree days are close to an end, the evenings spent on the back patio will soon require a fire and a sweater, and you turn your attention to Fall. But before you can truly start growing that seasonal beard in earnest, there's… Continue reading New Normal: 2% AVERAGE Inflation
